Philly Fed April 2023
  • Prior was -23.2
  • New orders -22.7 vs - 28.2 prior
  • Employment -0.2 vs -10.3 prior
  • Avg workweek -8.4 vs -3.2 prior
  • Capex -5.4 vs -3.8 prior -- lowest since March 2009
  • Prices paid +8.2 vs +23.5 prior
  • Future activity -1.5 vs -8.0 prior
  • Delivery times -25.0 vs -24.3 prior
  • Unfilled orders -11.1 vs -21.3 prior
  • Full report

The pricing numbers continue to plunge. Almost 19 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 10 percent reported decreases; 70 percent of the firms reported no change.The prices received index also fell 11 points to -3.3, which is the first negative reading since May 2020.

It's increasingly clear that inflation is on a downward path while Fed hikes are biting into demand, yet the Fed is still hiking rates. Given that, the market's attention is increasingly on growth, rather than inflation . The fear is that the Fed won't be responsive enough and that will lead to an unduly-harsh recession.

In special questions about wages and compensation, more than 55% of firms reported increases in the past three months, while 45% reported no change. Most firms (58%) have not adjusted their 2023 budgets for wages and compensation, but almost 33% plan to increase wages and compensation more than originally planned.