The US dollar is struggling to start the week as the odds of a 100 bps Fed hike dwindle but there was a crescendo of dollar selling into the London fix that's partly reversed.
Just before 4 pm in London, the buying in EUR/USD and GBP/USD peaked. That highlights that flows might be driving the move rather than fundamentals. US yields are higher today in line with bunds and gilts so there ishn't much to separate there.
Eyes are on the ECB on Thursday and the anti-fragmentation tool. A weekend report suggested it will be deliberately vague, giving more power (and temptation?) for the ECB to expand it and tighten Italian spreads. Those are coming in today with Italian 10 year yields down 2.5 bps despite rising yields elsewhere.
A poll today showed that centre-right parties might win an outright majority for the first time since 2008 if Italy heads to election.
