jobless claims

The US initial jobless claims and continuing claims for the current week:

  • prior week 243K revised to 237K
  • Initial jobless claims 232K vs 248K est.
  • 4 week moving average of initial claims 241.5K vs 245.5K last week. The MA is moving to the downside..
  • Continuing claims 1.438M vs 1.438M estimate. Prior revised to 1.412M vs 1.415M previously reported.
  • 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.4285M vs 1.424M last week
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 20 were in Arkansas (+451), Illinois (+428), Connecticut (+390), New York (+336), and Rhode Island (+219),
  • The largest decreases were in California (-2,130), New Jersey (-1,400), Indiana (-1,263), Oklahoma (-1,174), and Michigan (-714)

After running higher in the early summer, the trend in jobless claims has seen a reversal. Tomorrow, the US nonfarm payroll be released with expectations of 295K vs 528K last month. The ADP estimate - which they say is not a reflection of the BLS numbers - came in weaker than expected at 132K yesterday vs 300K estmate.