retail sales control group
US retail sales control group


  • Ex-autos +1.1% versus +0.5% expected.
  • Prior ex-autos +0.3%
  • Control group +1.1% versus +0.4% expected
  • Prior control group 0.0% (revised to +0.3%)
  • Retail sales ex gas and autos +1.0% vs +0.3% prior

US retail sales control group looked soft in Jan (-0.3%) and Feb (flat) but with this and the revision higher to Feb, it completely changes the picture. The March reading is the best since Jan 2023.

The caveat to this report could be that it was due to an early Easter. Of course, economists know the date of Easter but it's a tough to adjust for seasonally.

USD/JPY has blasted through 154.00 on this, running stops up to 154.28.

Here's what Pantheon Economics had to say after the report:

“This is an unequivocally strong [retail sales] report,” but it’s “hard to see how the strength in consumption can continue for much longer, now that real after-tax income growth has slowed markedly, the bulk of excess savings from earlier in the pandemic has been spent, and a raft of leading indicators point to a marked softening in the labor market.”