• Prior was 49
  • Current single-family home sales 54 vs 57 prior
  • Sales over the next six months 46 vs 47 prior
  • Index of prospective buyers 31 vs 32 prior

This has been a one-way decline from 84 at the start of the year and not a pretty picture but also not a surprise given surging mortgage rates. Demographically, there's been a boom in household formation and US housing is undersupplied so demand is there but sticker shock is a big problem right now. Ultiamtely, home builders will built smaller homes and buyers will adjust but that's going to take some time.

NAHB vs housing starts

From the report:

“Buyer traffic is weak in many markets as more consumers remain on the sidelines due to high mortgage rates and home prices that are putting a new home purchase out of financial reach for many households,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “In another indicator of a weakening market, 24% of builders reported reducing home prices, up from 19% last month.”

“Builder sentiment has declined every month in 2022, and the housing recession shows no signs of abating as builders continue to grapple with elevated construction costs and an aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that helped pushed mortgage rates above 6% last week, the highest level since 2008,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “In this soft market, more than half of the builders in our survey reported using incentives to bolster sales, including mortgage rate buydowns, free amenities and price reductions.”