US core CPI yy
- CPI y/y +% versus 3.1% expected
- Prior y/y 3.2%
- CPI m/m +0.1% versus 0.0% expected
- Prior m/m 0.0%
Core measures:
- Core CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.2%
- Core CPI y/y 4.0% versus 4.0% expected. Last month was 4.0%
- Shelter +0.4% versus +0.3% last month. Up 6.5% y/y
- Services less rent of shelter +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% prior (+3.5% y/y)
- Core services ex housing +0.44% m/m
- Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.1% prior
- Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior
- Food +2.9% y/y
- Energy -2.3% m/m vs -2.5% m/m prior
- Energy -5.4% y/y
- Rents +0.5% m/m vs +0.5% prior
- Owner equivalent rent +0.5% vs +0.4% prior
- Full report
As reminder how quickly things can change: At the time of the October CPI report, the market was pricing in a 33% chance of a January hike.
Now we're pricing in 120 bps in cuts next year versus 115 bps before the report. The US dollar is sliding in the immediate aftermath (update: it's reversed that). The market isn't too worried about that 0.1 pp miss on the headline.
Shelter (+6.0% y/y) and motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%) are the only real sources of worrisome upward pressure in prices left.
