nonfarm payrolls November 2023
nonfarm payrolls
  • Prior +180K (unrevised)
  • Two-month net revision -35K vs -101K prior
  • Unemployment rate +3.7% vs 3.9% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.9%
  • Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.7% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.0% vs 7.2% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Average hourly earnings +4.0% y/y vs +4.1% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +150K vs +153K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +28K vs +30K expected
  • Household survey +747K vs -348K prior
  • Birth-death adjustment +4K vs +412K prior

The market was pricing in 121 basis points in Fed rate cuts next year ahead of this report and USD/JPY was trading at 144.35. The pricing has immediately dropped to 112 basis points with USD/JPY up to 145.00.

The household survey has been lagging all year and it was an open question whether it would catch up to the establishment survey or if the establishment survey would catch down. With a huge gain in the household survey and a drop in the unemployment rate, despite higher participation, it looks like the survey are more in line now.

This is a big dent in the idea of a slowdown in hiring. A March cut is down to around 50% from 70%. There are three more jobs reports before then and if you're expecting a cut, you'd have to assume all three will be weak.

Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate