nonfarm payrolls Dec 2023
Non-farm payrolls
  • Prior +199K (revised to +173K)
  • Two-month net revision -71K vs -35K prior
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.8% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
  • Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.8% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.1% vs 7.0% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Average hourly earnings +4.1% y/y vs +3.9% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.4 expected
  • Change in private payrolls 164K vs +130K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +6K vs +5K expected
  • Household survey -683K vs +747K prior
  • Birth-death adjustment -52K vs +4K prior

USD/JPY was trading at 145.13 ahead of the data with 10-year yields at 4.04% and Fed funds pricing in a 68% chance of a March rate cut and 136 bps in cuts for 2024. The US dollar jumped on the data with USD/JPY up to 145.80 and a 58% chance of a March cut and 127 bps for the year.

The household survey was revised for the year and that led to a relatively large drop in the participation rate, which is something that put downward pressure on the unemployment rate. Moreover, there methodology is changing for population estimates in next month's report, which will lead to another skew. Finally, the establishment will also be hit by benchmark revisions next month.