ISM services d


  • employment index 50.2 versus 53.4 prior
  • new orders index 55.5 versus 51.8 prior
  • prices paid index 58.6 versus 58.9 prior
  • new export orders 48.8 versus 63.7 prior
  • imports 60.0 versus 50.6 prior
  • backlog of orders 50.9 versus 48.6 prior
  • inventories 49.5 versus 54.2 prior
  • supplier deliveries 47.5 versus 50.4 prior
  • inventory sentiment 54.4 versus 54.8 prior

Comments in the report:

  • “In general, commodity prices are coming down, but some categories, especially labor, are still elevated and will remain so for the immediate future. Suppliers are citing increased labor costs — wages, salaries and benefits — as the biggest reason for their price increases.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
  • “Strength in certain construction sectors is leading to continued optimism. Construction equipment and materials are at generally at lower prices and with faster deliveries. However, this is not the case for all materials or equipment; some prices remain high and with long lead (times).” [Construction]
  • “Currently, we are continuing as normal. If the economy takes a downturn, that will have a negative effect on our revenue. We are also leery of potential increases in fuel costs due in part to the unrest in the Middle East. If fuel costs rise, it will have a negative impact on our budget as we strive to continue normal operations on our campus.” [Educational Services]
  • “Labor pressures continue, particularly in areas that are hard to recruit. Filling front-line and lower-skill labor positions has gotten very expensive because of competition from large companies and logistics providers. Also, middle management roles are harder to recruit for than they have been in some years.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
  • “With (a supplier’s) labor dispute resolved; we’re expecting a return to the same delivery speeds before it started in July. We are in our busy season, and it’s especially busy this year compared to last fall.” [Information]
  • “We are taking a cautious approach due to the increase in crude oil prices. Capital projects have been slowed or postponed until oil prices stabilize. We expect this approach to continue through fiscal year 2024.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
  • “Due to the Israel-Hamas war, communications with clients in the Middle East are pretty much shut down.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
  • “The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike is having no impact so far — our inventory is in good position for now.” [Retail Trade]
  • “The general outlook for our organization is less positive than anticipated from the beginning of the year. Performance expectations were revised upward after a strong start to the year, and the results are not expected to be as high as the revised projections. Performance is impacted in part by our customers’ ability to fill our warehouses with product, and it seems the food manufacturing industry is still working toward increasing output, which has lagged a bit since the pandemic.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
  • “Business conditions have become murky as of late, but still going strong. However, certain business units are needing to be reevaluated.” [Utilities]
  • “The UAW strike and potential government shutdown have created risk and caution for our customers who have pulled back on purchases beginning this month.” [Wholesale Trade]

The jobs report and ISM services data were both weak today. Combined with the Fed comments this week and some other releases, the market is clearly signaling a top in Fed funds and a downturn in the economy.

One positive part of the report was the rebound in new orders.

ISM new orders
ISM new orders