US GDP qq 2nd reading on Q1
  • Preliminary reading was +1.3%
  • Final Q4 reading was +2.6% (unrevised)
  • Consumer spending +4.2% vs +3.8% 2nd reading
  • Core PCE prices +4.9% vs +5.0% expected
  • PCE prices % vs +4.2% 2nd reading
  • GDP final sales +4.2% vs +3.4% 2nd reading
  • Corporate profits after tax -5.9% vs -6.8% 2nd reading and -2.7% in Q4
  • Consumer spending on durables +16.3% vs -1.3% in Q4

Percentage point changes

  • Net trade +0.58 pp vs flat in prelim report and adding 0.46 pp in Q4
  • Inventories cut 2.14 pp vs at cut of 2.10 pp in prelim report and adding 1.46 pp in Q4
  • Govt +0.85 pp vs +0.89 pp in prelim report and +0.63 pp in Q4

So much for the recession. It's a bit of a shock that economists missed this one so badly.

The culprit for the big surprise higher in Q1 GDP was net trade. Even with that, you have to like the chances the Fed will hike again next month as the implied odds rise to 81%.

Drilling further into the trade data:

  • Exports added 0.86 pp vs 0.58 pp in the prelim report
  • Imports -0.28 vs -0.57 pp in the prelim report

The changes are notable in both goods and services. We get