The jump higher in the dollar after the US jobs report on Friday was encouraging but there still needs to be more in order to vindicate a return back to the year's highs for the greenback. For now, the price action today suggests that market players are not convinced and USD/JPY tipping back below 135.00 is but a testament to that.
While buyers managed to recover well from a drop towards 130.00 last week, the rebound here isn't suggestive of a return towards 140.00 yet either. For that, the bond market needs to play ball and for now, that isn't quite the case. 10-year Treasury yields are down 4 bps today to near 2.79% upon encountering resistance at the 100-day moving average:
That continues to be quite a defining technical point for the bond market at the moment. As such, that might be enough to keep USD/JPY pinned down below 135.00 as well.
Looking ahead this week, all the focus will be on the US CPI data on Wednesday and I reckon only until we get there will there be any real convictions for traders to firmly challenge key technical points on the charts.
