Peace Ukraine

For whatever reason, the earlier AFP headline on Ukraine dropping its pursuit of NATO captured the market's imagination.

As I wrote earlier, there's a potential path to the end of the war if Ukraine pursues it; though I'm not sure Russia will.

As a news trader, the worst thing is when a market moves on old news because the playbook says to fade it, but the timing is tricky. The amplification of news can also change the collective psychology and spark some optimism about a deal that lasts.

In this case, if Russia launches another push, I think this overture (and this little bounce) will be quickly forgotten and erased.

One day though, there will be peace and this trade showed what it looks like in markets: Buy stocks, sell oil, buy the euro.

I don't think that's any kind of groundbreaking insight but if you're trading this conflict (and if you're trading almost anything right now, you're trading this conflict), then you need to have a gameplan for an outbreak of peace.

Tomorrow there are plans for a peaceful day to evacuate civilians. We'll cross our fingers that it lasts.