The price is below the close from yesterday.
Yesterday, as the markets were in a risk aversion mode:
- Stocks fell sharply
- Yields fell sharply
- Gold rose
- Oil fell
- The risk off flows sent the AUD lower. It was the weakest currency.
Today, the risk off trade has reverse to risk on. So,
- Stocks are sharply higher
- Yields are lower
- Gold is lower
- Oil prices are higher
For the AUD, it is mixed. Versus the USD, the AUDUSD is actually lower vs the close from yesterday at 0.6752. HMMMM.
Moreover, looking at the 4 hour chart, the price action today has been above and below that closing level (at 0.6752). The high price reached 0.6764. The low reached 0.67365. The current price is currently at 0.6750.
Technically the close price from yesterday corresponded with the swing low going back to the end of November. Also yesterday the pair fell below a lower channel trend line and stay below that level. The underside of that trend line currently comes in at 0.6771. If this pair is to bottom and move higher, getting above the close from yesterday at 0.6752 and staying above that level is step 1. Step 2 is to move back above the underside of a broken trend line at the 0.6771 level. Failure to move back within that channel, keeps the sellers more in control.
So today although there was tons of risk on flows in other markets like stocks, and bonds, and gold and oil, the traders in the AUDUSD have some work to do. It is either that, or they see more risk down the road from coronavirus that the other markets are not really seeing today.
For now, the sellers still have the upper hand.
