AUD/USD buyers still looking for a firm break above the 200-day moving average
Yesterday's run higher failed to culminate into anything meaningful as buyers failed to secure a daily close above the 200-day MA (blue line). Today, that level rests at 0.7190 and will be a key point of contention once again as price lingers around 0.7180-90 levels after touching a high of 0.7199 earlier.
The high came after the release of the Australian jobs data for March which showed a jump in employment figures but the unemployment rate crept slightly higher since February. The data failed to offer much to market participants in general as it didn't show the kind of decline sellers are hoping for to price in a RBA rate cut further.
Hence, it is suggesting markets to 'carry on as you were' to prior to the data release as we will have to wait on more clues before being able to find firm direction based on fundamentals. From a technical perspective however, the 200-day MA highlighted above remains key and any firm daily break above that will represent a significant change in AUD/USD bias (reverting the bias back to the upside).
That being said, over the next few sessions, it's best to be aware of thinner liquidity conditions with Australian markets among those set for a four-day weekend. I never trust breaks that happen during periods on thin liquidity and the flash crash on 3 January is a prime example of why that is the case.
