Falls away from 200 hour MA.
The AUDUSD has made a new low as US stocks open and anxiety increases.
The pair has continue to move lower in the early NY session - falling below the 200 hour moving average at 0.69271 currently (green line in the chart below). The AUDUSD has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since May 18. That's a long time ago.
Staying below the 200 hour moving average would keep the bears in control.
The price is testing its week ago low (last Thursday) at 0.68803. A break below that level would look toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 22 corrective swing low at 0.69498 (call at 0.6950). A swing low from last Wednesday came in at 0.68560.
Drilling to the daily chart, the run to the upside scene since the March low saw the price move from a low of 0.5509 to a high of 0.70627 (yesterday's high price). That it is a gain of 28.1%. That's a big move even if you discount the price low was REALLY low.
The high price yesterday fell short of the July 2019 high at 0.70813 and failed on the break above the December 2019 high price at 0.70314 (see chart below). The inability to stay above that high helped to swing some of the bias back to the downside and has given traders the idea that the high may be in place. Be aware.
If the highs in place, the break below the 200 hour moving average should keep a lid on the pair. Failure to do so would surprise the sellers on the break and likely lead to the shorts getting out. Stay below, however, keeps the idea that the bullish high is in place (for now - there is more to prove by the shorts like getting through retracement levels), and that should lead to more probing to the downside.
