Be on the lookout for a break.
The AUDUSD has been mired in an up and down range for 7 weeks now.
Looking at the 4-hour chart above, most of the trading (the value area) has been int he 0.7358 level up to 0.7441. Yesterday, the price tested the high of that value area (red box). Today, the price tested (is testing) the low of that area.
Has the price traded above the high of the area? Yes
Has the price traded below the low of the area? Yes.
It just does not go very far, for very long and the price rotates in the other direction.
Going into the close, the pair is near the lows. If the price can break below the 0.7359, look for sellers. If it can't push lower, don't be surprised to see yet another run to the higher extreme(s). In between, sits the converged 100 and 200 bar MAs at 0.7396 (blue and green lines). It wasn't until this week, that the 200 bar MA was able to catch up to the 100 bar MA and the price action has done a good job of chopping around those MAs.
What we have to look forward to, however, is that the market will break and run at some point. So keep your eyes open for that break. Who knows....it may be in the new trading day.
