Low to high trading range of 1637 pips vs 691 pips in 2019
The EURUSD had an above average trading range for 2020 of 1637 pips. That compares to a range of only 691 pips in 2019. The 2019 trading range was the lowest trading range going back to at least 1980.
How did this years trading range of 1637 pips stack up over the last 10 years?
The range of 1637 pips was the 5th largest range over the last 10 trading years. So right in the middle of the 10 year ranges. The average over the last 10 years was 1490 pips. At 1637 it is above the average trading range. Note that with a few more trading days left, and the price trading near its high for the year at 1.22722 (the price is currently trading at 1.2210), there is a chance to make a run at the 2015 trading range of 1651 or the 2017 range of 1751.
Regardless, the range is nearly 946 pips more than 2019s non-trending year.
Technically, the year started at 1.12084. The low reached 1.06347 on March 23rd. The high price reached 1.22722 on December 17th. The price moved into positive territory for the year for the last time on June 29th - or near the midpoint of the year. At that time, the EURUSD range for the year was 852 pips. Since then, the pair tacked on 1063 pips to the December high.
The trend to the upside got it's start back on April 24 at 1.07265 and got a bullish boost when support at 1.0766-1.0777 held support (see red numbered circles).
Since that low, the EURUSD had 3 trend legs higher.
- The first run took the price from 1.07265 to 1.14211 (or 694 pips). The correction lower off the June 10 high stalled just ahead of the 38.2% of the move up from the April 24 low at 1.11558. The low corrective price stalled at 1.11673 which was the base for the 2nd trend leg higher. On a trend move, if the 38.2% to 50% retracement area can hold support, the trend remains in tact. Holding the 38.2% was a bullish signal. The price started the 2nd trend leg higher.
- The 1.11673 low on June 19 saw the price move up to a high at 1.20105 on September 1. That range was 843 pips from the low to the high which surpassed the 1st trend leg (of 694 pips). The correction off the September 1 high saw the price waffle up and down in September, October and November. The lows in September at 1.16117 (green numbered circle 1) and in November (green numbered circle 2) was just 10 pips from September low level at 1.16016. Moreover, that floor was also just above the 50% of the 2nd trend leg higher at 1.15889 (low of 3nd yellow area in the chart above). Staying above the 50%, kept the buyers in control and proved to be the low for the 3rd trend leg higher in 2020.
- The third trend leg higher started at 1.16016 on November 4th. The high reached to 1.22722 on December 17th. That high stalled near a topside trend line on the daily chart. The high could be in place, but sellers need to prove they can take back more control. The 3rd leg was 670 pips (so far at least). So it is near the range of the first leg higher. The pair remains in that 3rd leg and the price is still near the high. A lower trend line cuts across at 1.2165 (and moving higher). Move below would tilt the bias a little to the downside. The 38.2% is at 1.2016. That is just above the September 1 high at 1.2010. It would be a key support target (assuming the high is set and the price corrects lower). The 50% of the last leg higher cuts across at 1.19369. A move below that level would be more of a tilt in the bearish direction going forward as the trend run starts to run out of steam.
SUMMARY:
The year saw a decent rebound from a very narrow 2019 trading range. At 1637 pips it was 946 pips more than 2019s range, and above the average range over the last 10 trading years.
Moreover, the pair trended higher since April/May with 3 trend legs higher. Each of the legs held the 38.2-50% of the leg, keeping the buyers in control. We are currently in the 3rd leg. It will take a move below a trend line at 1.2165 and the 38.2% at 1.2016 (and the September 1 high at 1.2010) to tilt the bias more to the downside. A move below the 50% of the 3rd leg higher at 1.19369 (assuming the high is in place), would also ruin the bullish party for the EURUSD into 2021.
