Is that enough?

The EURUSD last week closed at 1.1857. That was below the 2010 swing low at 1.1876. The week was lower from the prior week. Just those two things gave it a little more bearish end to the week.

What happened this week?

The low for the week was at 1.18674. That happened on Monday. There were two subsequent hours that traded below the 1.1876 level by about a pip or two. That was it. The bearish below the 1.1876 was reversed.

Admittedly, the move higher had a lot of volatility and risk. On Wednesday, Draghi's presser sent the price sharply lower toward support at the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below), before moving sharply higher (higher GDP and expectation the ECB will have to do something at some time).

That rally continued today with a move to a new high of 1.2092 for the year. That took out the August high at 1.20694.

However, at the peak, the pair stalled right at (well within 4-5 pips) of the 38.2% of the move down from the 2011 high to the end of 2016 low. That comes in at 1.20968 (see chart below). Is that enough?

The truthful answer is we never know. The ECB still presumingly has to take away some of the accommodation. Remember Draghi said accommodation will continue for some time, but the US is still accommodating even though they have tightened a number of times. So traders still have to respect the upside.

However, what we do know is that 38.2% retracement is a key level. PS we are also just below the 2012 swing low at 1.2042 as we head into the close for the week. Stay below and there could be more of a rotation lower.

Technically, I would like to see the price stay below the 1.2042. The 1.2069 level and 1.20968 are all potential resistance levels.

If the high is in place against the 38.2% at 1.20968, we should see levels like the 1.2006 taken out. The 100 hour MA down at 1.1958 (and moving higher) should be taken out and then ultimately a move back below the 1.1876 level. Those would be some of the steps that would paint a more bearish picture.

On the topside, if the aforementioned level are taken out at 1.2042, 1.2069 and 1.20968 and the bullish run can continue.