The EURUSD is chopping up and down in a narrow 21 pip trading range as traders await the Fed decision.
Technically, the consolidation has given the falling 100 hour MA to move lower and squeeze down on the price. The high for the day did test that falling moving average, and found sellers leaning against the level. It will take a move above that 100 hour MA and ultimately the turned sideways 200 hour MA at 1.2152 (green line) to tilt the bias more to the upside.
Absent a move above those MAs, the sellers are more in control at least in the short/medium term.
On the downside, not far away is a swing area between 1.20994 and 1.2106 (see green numbered circles). Admittedly, on Friday and again on Monday, the price dipped below that area on a number of hourly bars, but could only extended to a swing low of 1.20919 on Friday and 1.2093 on Monday.
Get below those levels and the door opens up for a rotation down toward 1.2051-1.2056 and following that the 100 day moving average at 1.20415.
For now the pair seems content with a bearish bias, but with limited downside momentum. Much will depend on the what happens at the FOMC time. However, the key technical levels are defined. Traders will be looking for the break and run.