An overnight note from Commerz with a chart analysis for the euro

EUR/USD has recently eroded the 1.2272 2017-2018 uptrend, and yesterday eroded the base of the short term triangle.

  • We suspect that in order to really generate some downside interest that we will need to see a close below the 1.2155 February low (favoured). We look for the cross to remain capped by the near term resistance line at 1.2418 and maintain a negative stance below here. Intraday rallies are indicated to fail at circa 1.2240/75.
  • Above 1.2418 lies the March highs at 1.2447/76.

Where are we wrong?

  • Our bearish bias is maintained while capped by the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2622

Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks):

  • Failed ahead of the 1.2622 downtrend line. Looking for a slide back towards the 1.2266/1.2155 2017-18 uptrend line and February low.

Long term trend (1-3 months):

  • A slip below the February low at 1.2155 will introduce scope to the 1.1553 November low.