Copper moves off lows too
The AUDUSD has seen higher closes for 8 straight days. Today is the 9th baring a reversal. The last time the pair had such a move was back in March 2009. During that streak, the pair rose for 10 straight days.
The move higher has seen the price move up from a low of 0.6935. The high today extended to 0.7380 so far today (442 pips). The move higher has taken the price to and through the 100 day MA (it comes in at 0.7367 today). The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high comes in at 0.73835. The 100 day MA coupled with the 38.2% retracement should be a tough nut to crack. The price is testing the level right now. Is there enough players to keep the technical lid on it at the 0.7383 level? Not much risk for sellers against the 38.2% retracement level. A move above should solicit more buying technically at least.
The move higher has been helped by bottoming(?) commodities. Copper has been moving higher since bottoming at the beginning of October (see chart below). The move high is moving closer to it's 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below). The rise has traders thinking that perhaps there is scope for a corrective move which could help the AUDUSD in the process.
Putting that idea aside, the risk in the AUDUSD is defined at the 38.2%. Move above is bullish. Stay below and move back below the 100 day MA and the 9-day run higher, might take a breather. Key test.