Trades between the 100 and 200 hour MA
The EURUSD is trading between the 100 and 200 hour MAs in trading today at 1.11988 and 1.12322 respectively. I call that condition "trading between the goal posts". The lower of those extremes are being tested after the weaker than expected inflation data out of Germany, but looks below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) did fail to ignite any momentum (low reached 1.1193) and traders seem to be using the level to define and limit risk at the moment. Although a break below is certainly another step in the bearish direction, the 200 day MA looms not far behind at 1.11813, while the 100 day moving average is further lower at 1.11457.
Who is more in control? I would give the nod to the bears with work to do.
- The price is lower on the day.
- The high today reached the 50% of the move down from the September 18 high and held.
- The price failed on the break above the 200 hour MA and above the topside trend line on the hourly chart.
- The fundamental inflation data was weaker
The work to do is:
- Get and stay below the 100 hour MA at 1.11998 (ah...1.12000 is close enough).
If it can be busted, the range for the day is light of normal at 87 pips vs 110 average over the last month of trading.
Close resistance? 1.1218 area. This was a low floor in intraday trading today (see chart below). Trade above that level and the sellers become disenchanted with the downside a bit and we could see a retest of the 200 hour MA at the 1.1232 level.
