Turns negative on the day
The EURUSD has fallen below the close from yesterday ( at 1.13527) and looks to extend the days trading range (low was at 1.13398). The pair is also below the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday's high at the 1.1351.
The selling started to intensify on the break of the days midpoint at the 1.13918 level (see earlier post). The high for the day peaked against a nice technical level as well. Draghi's comments on QE seems to have reminded traders that the bond buying will continue (ECB to implement QE program "in full") despite the "potent" gains from the unconventional measures. This has helped to turn the tide back to the downside.
What now? Well, the shorts against the high or on the break of the 50% are actually more in control - or at least, they have the winning trade location. Traders who are happy with that location can use the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above) on the 5 minute chart as close risk. The MA line held after the break. This shows me that the sellers liked that risk defining level (it comes in at 1.1384 currently). On the downside, shorts would love a move below the lows from yesterday's NY close and the Asia-Pacific lows at the 1.1339 area. That opens the downside for some more exploring with 1.1322 and 1.1294 the next levels to eye.
