Can't stay below the 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart.

Yesterday, the GBPNZD was the weakest currency pair. The market was trending. It was staying below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart with little in the way of corrections. At the time, the price was trading below the low from May 11th at 1.8605. The next target was to the low from May 3rd at 1.8544, and then the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (see post from yesterday).

What happened?

Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price continued its trend lower. The price stayed below the risk defining 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart (blue line in the chart below). The price made it below the 1.8544 low from May 3rd, and made it to and through the the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (green line at the bottom of the chart at 1.84507 currently).

The low on the break of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, extended to 1.84077 - nearly 200 pips from the level at the time of the post yesterday....

When the price moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute, AND the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 1.8450 level, the sellers turned to buyers. Profit taking was on. The sellers turned to buyers.

So what next?

Keeping on the 5- minute chart, the price rebounded back to the 1.8544 area (that May 3rd low) and reversed back lower. We remain above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart. Stay above those MAs, and there is likely more covering from shorts. We could/should see a move back to, and potentially above the 1.8544 level. If the price instead moves below the MAs on the downside, the sellers will take back full control. A move lower can be expected.

Summary. The GBPNZD was trending yesterday. Moreover, the price was respecting the MAs on the way lower. That kept the sellers in control. Eventually, the trend will end and for the GBPNZD, it stalled when the price moved above not only the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart, but also above the target MA (i.e. the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart). Now the market is more balanced and there is more of a battle between the buyers and the sellers. Who will win? Watch the test of the MAs. That will help tell the next chapter of the pairs story.