The simple question technically...Can the GBPUSD price stay below the 100 day MA?
The GBPUSD has been trading up and down really over the last 6 trading weeks. The range has been about 300 pips over that time period (at the extremes). In between move activity was between 1.31099 to 1.3278.
Today, the price moved:
- Away for the 50% of the wide range at 1.31818
- Below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.31629
- Outside the narrower value area (low at 1.31099)
- Below the 100 day MA at 1.31099
Putting it simply, the pair - in its ups and downs - has moved below its 100 day MA last week and the week before. Last week, the price fell below the 100 day MA on October 8 and October 9. On Friday, the price stalled just ahead of the 100 day MA.
So this move below is yet another break. The simple question for traders? Can it stay below that MA line? If so, we can expect a move below the recent lows at 1.3038 (last week's lows) and the low from October 6th at 1.30264.
If the price goes back above the 100 day MA, all short bets are off once again.
In non trending up and down markets, you need to pick your spots, define your risk, limit your risk. Also understand at some point, the market will figure it out and run. Today there have been a run lower, but there is more to do. Nevertheless, the key 100 day MA was busted and it is up to the sellers to now keep it below. Look for sellers to lean against the 100 day MA with stops on a break back above.
