Forex technical analysis: The AUDUSD topping?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | audusd

A little battle going on....

The AUDUSD has a double top on the intraday 5- minute chart. The pair also tested a channel top side trend line.  The holding stalled the rally.  

The correction lower, has taken the price back down to the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below).   The price is inching below that line at the moment.   Earlier in the Asia-Pacific session, the price fell below this moving average, but found support on a upward sloping trendline (see blue circle 4)   The price is now higher.  The MA and trend line are higher.  Can the higher levels attract sellers now?

What we can say, is the market is more balanced at the levels. but the sellers still need to prove they can take control.  So if inclined to sell, you would want to see the price stay below the 100 bar MA and get below that trend line.  That is something new.   If long, you still have most control, but holding the high, holding the topside trend line and dipping below the 100 bar MA took some of the strength away at these levels.   

Looking at the daily chart, the peak also raises a red flag for buyers (or at least a profit taking opportunity)...The high paused at the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August high. That level also corresponded with the swing low from July 31st.  The broken trend line on the daily chart comes in tat 0.7203. That will also be eyed. A move below it and then the upward sloping trend line on the 5 minute chart at 0.7198 area (and moving higher) would be a further shift in sentiment. 

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