Oil higher but in middle of the range

The USDCAD is trading below it's 50% of the move up from the April 12 low. That comes in at 1.35076. The last 5 hourly bars has closed below that MA level. It is a close risk level intraday for traders. Traders who are short want to see the price stay below that level. We are currently trading near it. If it starts to trade and close back above shorts may look to buyback shorts.

Having said that the sellers are trying to push the downside more in trading today -albeit in a up and down type of way. Looking at the hourly chart above, the high today stalled against the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart AND the underside of a broken trend line. That trend line was broken on Friday. The price has remained below that line since that time. The line currently comes in at 1.3535 (and moving lower). It represents another risk defining level for shorts. Stay below is more bearish.

Drilling to the 5-minute chart, as mentioned, the price action today has had it's share of ups and downs with a downward bias.

The price is peeking above the 100 bar MA on the 5- minute chart as I type. That comes after the pair had a double bottom at 1.3484 area. The 50% of the day's range comes in at 1.3512. The 200 bar MA comes in at 1.3515. Traders who like the short side, should keep this area as a ceiling. A move above and the sellers today may look to buy back. We would be back above the 50%. Traders might restart that level as a support level again.

Oil prices are higher today and trades in the middle of the range ($51.06 high, $50.44 low and currently trading around $50.70). The 61.8% of the move down from the Jan high comes in at $50.85. The 100 day MA comes in at $51.12. That MA was tested (remember the high reached $51.06). If the price starts to rotate more to the downside (support now in Crude is $49.37-50), that could lead to increased CAD weakness (a move higher in USDCAD). Be aware (but you will see it in the USDCAD chart).

PS. It is a holiday in Canada today.

PSS. The BOC will have a rate statement on Wednesday at 10 AM. NO change in the overnight rate is expected.

PSSS. OPEC meeting on Thursday. The expectations are for continuation of production cuts. They can surprise. There are reports that a 9 month extension is likely but the cut levels won't be known for sure until Thursday.