Throw in a few MAs too
The USDJPY corrected lower last week after BOJ Kuroda said the currency has gone low enough. The plunge sent the pair to within 6 pips of the 50% of the move up from the May 13 low (122.44 vs 122.38 -see chart below). The subsequent rally, sent the price to the 50% of the move lower at the 124.146 (the high reached 124.12). So there is a battle of the 50%ers.
Today, the pair has been confined to a narrow 53 pip trading range with the low reached in the 1st hour of trading. The highs have my interest as the price highs are remaining below the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart (bearish) and also (for the most part) staying below the yellow area which had a lot of swing lows going back to the end of May/early June. Last week, the price went back above this area, but with no closes. So I give the nod to the shorts for those reasons. The 123.18 level (38.2% of the move up from May 14) is a level to get and stay below to give sellers more confidence in the what Kuroda says. Jawboning works sometimes. Then it gets old. So there will need to either be a technical catalyst or a fundamental catalyst to keep the buyers in the JPY. Technically, the ceiling is trying to hold the line.
