The AUDUSD has been better supported today on the back of better building approvals (Australian Nov building approvals +7.5% vs -3.0% exp). That push was good the move above the 100 hour MA (blue line). However, the pair has stalled on the topside against the 200 hour MA (green line) and the 50% of the move down from the Dec 31 high (at the 0.8120-23 area).
The AUSDUSD is trading between the goal posts.
The pair has been ping-ponging (for the most part) between the 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving average since that time (see chart above). I call this dynamic “trading between the goalposts”, with the goalposts being the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The market is saying is not readyto take the next step. Eventually that feeling goes away and the price breaks outside of the range. In the last hour or so, the price went downand tested the 100 hour moving average, then closed at the high for that hourly bar. This should be a more bullish development, but so far the topside resistance is holding the line.
For buyers now looking for that break, watch the 0.8108 level. This was a low going back to December 26. On January 5th, the pair leaned against this area. Admittedly in today’s trading, the prices been waffling back and forth but note how the current hourly bar found support against that level. Maybe it’s a short term clue…
PS Australia retail sales will be released at 7:30 PM ET with expectations of 0.2% gain vs 0.4% last. AIG performance of construction index will also be released with estimate of 45.4.