The USD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest as NA session begins

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | forex

The GBP whips around after PMI data

The USD is the strongest of the majors while the GBP is the weakest as North American traders enter for the day.   The GBP whipped around today after better PMI manufacturing data for January sent the price higher, but buyers quickly turned to sellers after realizing perhaps that even at 49.8 (vs 48.8), the manufacturing is still in contraction.  The BOE odds are 50-50 for a cut next week.  The price action today has traders hedging for the cut possibility (or so it seems)   The USD is higher against all the majors, but the gains are relatively modest (more than 1/2 of the modest gain today is vs the GBP and CHF as well). 

The coronavirus remains a concern, and it is likely to be a hit to the Chinese economy but it is not running away as of yet:  
  • At least 846 people are now infected in China and abroad
  • There are 26 deaths with most occurring in Wuhan. Deaths were also recorded in Hebei province, as well as Heilongjiang province in north east China.
  • The lockdown is impacting 33M people. China population is 1.4B
  • Disneyland will be closed from Saturday
  • Celebrations for the Lunar New Year have been canceled.

The GBP whips around after PMI data
The ranges and changes are showing big ranges in GBP pairs but up and down ranges too. The rest of the pairs vs the USD are....well disappointing. The highest is 34 pips (for the EURUSD). The rest of the major currencies vs the US have ranges of 25 pips or less with the NZDUSD range only 19 pips.  Admittedly, the NZDUSD raced higher just before 5 PM ET after inflation for the quarter rose by 0.5% vs 0.4% estimate (even so, the range was only 30 pips including that run) .  

The ranges and changes for the major currency pairs
In other markets, the snapshot is showing:
  • spot gold is trading down $4.44 or -0.28% at $1558.51
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.18 or -0.32% at $55.41. The low reached $55.25 as it continues its slide
In the premarket for US stocks, Intel's good earnings earnings after the close are helping to give the major indices a boost in early trading on hopes for better things to come from other companies:
  • Dow, up 99 points
  • NASDAQ up 50 points
  • S&P up 9.16 points
In the European markets, they too are rebounding in trading today:
  • German DAX, +1.55%
  • France's CAC, +1.15%
  • UK's FTSE 100, +1.16%
  • Spain's Ibex, +1.1%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.5%
In the US debt market yields are little changed/near unchanged levels:

US yields are little changed
In the European debt market yields are unchanged a little higher after trending lower for most of the week:

European yields are a little higher
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