Canada unemployment statistics
The US will be joined by Canada in releasing their October trade data at 8:30 AM ET/1230.
For Canada the expectations are the following:
- Net change in Employment 15.0K vs 63.3K last month
- unemployment rate 5.9% versus 5.9% last month
- Hourly earnings YoY 2.3% versus 2.2% last month
- Full time employment change 20K vs -16.9K last month
- Part time employment change -4.1K vs 80.2K last month
- Participation rate 65.4 vs 65.4 last
Last month, the data on the surface came out much stronger than expected but all the gains were in part time employment. This month the expectations are for a more normal number with full time jobs rebounding.
When the US and Canada release on the same day, the Canada markets can be influenced by the trends in the US numbers. So be aware.
Technically, looking at the hourly chart above, the price moved lower in trading yesterday, and in doing so, the price moved off the highest level since September 10th, and moved toward a cluster of moving averages including:
- The 100 hour MA at 1.31186
- The 200 hour MA at 1.3099
- The 100 day MA at 1.3072
- The 100 hour MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.30645.
That range - from 1.30645 to 1.3118 - define the "neutral" area for the pair into to employment report (we currently trade near the middle at 1.3095).
Off the number(s) tomorrow, if there is a clear winner and loser between the US/Canada combo (i.e. US is stronger, Canada is weaker or visa versa), the yellow are will be busted (higher or lower). Go with the break.
If both come in stronger or weaker, the market may just trade between the levels and look for the next technical push at some point down the road.
The key is know the expectations. If there is a divergence in the respective numbers, look for the break and the run outside the yellow area.
