USD/JPY inches above the 100-hour moving average
That signals that the near-term bias is now more bullish as price holds above both key hourly moving averages. However, I wouldn't consider it a win for buyers just yet as price isn't breaking away in a significant manner just yet.
BOJ governor Kuroda's comments earlier nudged the yen lower but all in all, it's tough to argue that this represents a significant change in monetary policy stance by the central bank. They have always mentioned that they have multiple tools for disposal if they need to pursue more easing measures so in my view, this isn't a significant game changer in terms of a fundamental perspective.
That said, it did trigger a slight change in near-term sentiment and that's the more important thing to look at. Price is continuing to hold just above the 100-hour MA (red line) now as we begin European morning trade but without further catalysts i.e. changes in risk sentiment, I don't see a real break on the cards for buyers here.
For the time being, it's all about US-China trade talks and how markets derive sentiment from that. Hence, even a move back towards 111.00 would be met with skepticism at this point without the backing of risk/equities.
With equities and Treasuries rather flat on the day, I don't see how this will move the yen further to the downside all too much. If price moves back towards 111.00 just on the back of Kuroda here, it would be a good area to fade the move in my view.
But just be wary of any changes in risk sentiment that could reaffirm a move higher in any case. If markets turn risk-on later in the day, buyers will be able to claim a small win regardless of the nudge higher from Kuroda.
