The 100 hour MA comes in at 2526.95.
It is Friday. It is month/quarter end. There is expectation that there may be quarter end rebalancing to the buy side. However, let me repeat, it is Friday with the coronavirus risks high over the weekend as Italy, Spain, US, New York City in the news spotlight, with markets closed.
Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the price gapped lower from the close at the highs yesterday. That high fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the all-time high in February at 2650.89. The high price reached 2637 yesterday.
The low today moved to 2520.02. That early session downside momentum took the price below its 100 hour moving average at 2526.90. However, the price has since rebounded and currently trades at around 2546.
The 100 hour moving average will be a key barometer for the bulls and the bears today. A move back below with momentum could/should signal the end of the corrective move higher.
For your guide, the S&P move from the low on March 20 to the high yesterday took the price 20.31% off the low. That is pretty impressive and had traders thinking about a V recovery. However, once again, the rally could not get above the 38.2% retracement. If that dynamic remains, the correction is just a plain vanilla variety.
So is that it?
Much is dependent upon what happens around the 100 hour moving average today, and if the upside can't get above the 38.2% plain vanilla level. Keep those levels in mind going forward.
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