No help from OPEC+ coming
OPEC's joint monitoring committee recommended no deviation from the planned 400k bpd increase in November and the market now fully believes that's what will happen. The OPEC+ ministerial meeting will start any minute.
There is some risk of jawboning at the end of the meeting but the chart will tell the story today. After a break of $77, oil has cut through the July high to the best levels since 2014.
This isn't just a potential break of the July high though. There's a whole host of resistance in the $76-77 range, including the 2018 highs. There's also a long-term downtrend, something Scotia highlighted today. They said a few days of closes above could highlight 'much higher' prices.
For me, the close today will be huge. Its a 'news' day with OPEC+ meeting and volumes will be big. We've had the consolidation below $76 for four months now and it looks ready to take off.
On the fundamental side, I've highlighted the bull case for oil for more than a year.
