The price is above the 100 and 200 day MA and 50% retracement levels
The NZDUSD since bottoming on June 14, has stepped higher and higher. Over the last 10 days, there was one day with a 1 pip decline. The rest have seen higher closes from the previous day.
Today, the price moved above the 100 day MA (at 0.669411), the 200 day MA (green line at 0.67063) and the 50% retracement as well (at 0.67095). That is a tough cluster of technical levels. I can't ignore those breaks. The bulls are in control ....above those levels.
What is headscratching is that the probability of a cut by the RBNZ is about 70% at the next meeting in August. Their neighbor Australia, is expected to cut rates next week.
Now it takes two to tango and the Fed may cut because of inflation being too low. That could pressure the USD. A US/China truce may also help the NZD as well. That may also help stocks and "risk on" flows. So there are reasons for NZD strength too.
Hence the respect to the price action and the breaks. Buyers are in control. Sellers are not.
If you are tempted to sell, this is one instance where you trade a failed break (or lean against the next target with a tight stop). That is, a move back below the 50%, and 200 day and 100 day, will have the buyers question the upside on the fail. Without that, the sellers are not taking control.
Now there is some resistance atthe 0.67208 level. There have been swing levels up to that level. Selling against that area is an option for the bears out there, but note you are trying to paddle against the technical breaks. So protect if that area is broken.
