The AUDUSD is stretching above its 100 day moving average near 0.67886. The price is now moving toward the swing high going back to April 14 at 0.6805. The high price just reaches 0.67994. Getting above 0.6805 would open the door for further upside probing. On the downside off the hourly chart, the 100 day moving average will now be a close intraday support level. A more conservative stop for traders looking for further upside momentum might be back below the 0.6771 level which was the swing high going back to April 20 (see hourly chart above).
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the price has been in and up and down trading range since January 24 (see red box on the chart below). That range is between 0.65639 and 0.6805.
Last week the price moved back above the 200 day moving average (green line in the chart below) for the 1st time since April 21. That 200 day moving average comes in 0.67287. Admittedly the price has traded above the 200 day moving average on 7 different daily bars before Friday, but the 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) was always the key resistance level that stalled the rallies.
Of note as well from a technical perspective is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 2023 high to the low reached in March is also near the 100 day moving average (at 0.67905).
So, buyers are making a play, but can they keep the price above the 100 day moving average/38.2% retracement? If so a swing area near 0.6828 – 0.68553, followed by the 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range at 0.68605 would be the next upside targets on the daily chart. If not and the price breaks back below the 100 day moving average and the 0.6771 level (off the hourly chart). A move back toward the 200 day moving average at 0.67287 would be eyed.
