Following the news of BlackRock's submission for a Bitcoin ETF on June 15th, Ethereum saw an impressive surge in value, rallying from the 1620 level to the 2029 high. Despite the hawkish reassessments of interest rate expectations and the regulatory crackdowns in recent weeks and months, Ethereum's resilience remained noteworthy. However, its struggle to break above the high even with the positive risk sentiment in the markets, triggered by the miss in the US CPI report and the signs of a soft landing, might be a negative sign.
Ethereum Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Ethereum has eventually tapped into the 2029 high after the break above the trendline. The price has now pulled back again as the cryptocurrency struggles to find a strong upward momentum. We will likely need some big fundamental catalyst to get things going.
Ethereum Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a big divergence with the MACD with the last push into the 2029 high. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we should see first a pullback into the 1823 support where we are likely to find buyers stepping in with a defined risk below the level and target the break above the 2029 high.
Ethereum Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have two key short term levels here. The sellers have two options here:
- Leaning on the 1946 swing high level to target the 1823 support.
- Wait for the price to fall below the 1875 swing low to pile in and extend the fall into the 1823 support.
- The buyers, on the other hand, are likely to pile in even more aggressively if the price breaks above the 1946 swing high level and target the break above the 2029 high.
Upcoming Events
Looking ahead, the upcoming US Jobless Claims report on Thursday holds significant importance. With the prevailing soft-landing narrative, a slight negative deviation from expectations is unlikely to have a substantial impact; any resulting spike is expected to be short-lived. However, if there is a significant miss in the report, it might trigger recessionary concerns in the markets, potentially leading to weakness in Ethereum. Conversely, a substantial beat in the report would bolster the belief in a soft-landing scenario and likely provide support for the cryptocurrency.
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