The EURGBP fell to the lowest level since August 30. Those levels in August were before the spike higher on the back of the UK political mess that caused the years drilling to surge up 0.9271 in September before quickly reversing after the resignation of PM Truss.
Since then the price has been moving back toward levels seen before the debacle with the last two months in up and down price action.
At the lows, the low price in mid – October found support against its 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart above). At the end of October, the 100 day moving average was broken but momentum could not be sustained.
In November, the low price stalled against the low price from October and bounced higher. Selling resumed on Monday with the biggest step to the downside coming in trading today, helped by a momentum move below the 100 day MA at 0.8622. For bears, staying below that MA is a barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay below is more bearish.
The fall today moved to a low of 0.8546. That low got within 10 pips of the rising 200 day moving average at 0.85368. Early buyers leaned against the key moving average level. In the price has seen a modest bounce back toward the low of a swing area between 0.8571 - 0.8600 (see red numbered circles and yellow area). In the short term traders looking for more downside would want to see the price stay below the 0.8571 level. That would be the best case scenario for sellers. A move above and the subsequent move back above the 0.8600 level would be disappointing as would a move back above the 100 day moving average at 0.8622.
So buyers against the 200 hour moving average have a stake in a bounce off of that key support level. However the need some additional work via a move above the 0.8571 followed by 0.8600, and 0.8622, to claim victory.
Conversely, sellers looking for more downside would want to see the price stay below the aforementioned levels.
