The EURUSD moved lower in the Asian session, and tried to move below a consolidation swing level at 1.0678. The low price extended to 1.0670 before bouncing back to the upside and moving back toward its 100/200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above).
Recall from yesterday, the price moved up toward those moving averages, was able to get above its 100 hour moving average, but stay below the 200 hour moving average before moving lower in the Asian session today. The move higher today has been able to extend above those moving averages, and now traders are using them as support. The bias has tilted back to the upside.
Having said that, the pair is largely in an up and down trading range (see red box in the chart above).
On the topside the 1.0748 – 1.07637 area is home to a number of swing highs going back to May 24. Above that area and the cycle extreme up to 1.07861 would be targeted.
Looking at the daily chart, a move above the end of May high price at 1.07861, would also take the price above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2022 high price. The 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement needed to extend above if the countertrend traders are to take back more control. Absent that, and the correction is a plain-vanilla variety. The holding of the 38.2% retracement last month kept the pair in the plain-vanilla variety.
Can the price push above that retracement level and work on more upside probing?