The EURUSD started the US session near it's lows after a down, up and back down rotation into the North American session. The "up" from earlier in the day stalled against its 100 hour moving average. Move back to the lows at the start of the US session moved below a swing area between 1.0960 and 1.09649.
In the earlier post at the start of the day, I warned of a move back above the swing area at 1.10960 to 1.09649. That is what happened, and the sellers were once again forced to buy.
Like in the early European session, the buying once again moved the price up to retest the 100 hour MA. And for the 2nd time today (just like for the 2nd time at the lows), the sellers leaned. The price has moved off the level.
There are two tests of the lows down to 1.09438, and two tests of the highs against the 100 hour MA at 1.09969. Between those extremes, sits the 50% of the range since the March 7 low at 1.0971 and the swing level at 1.09604 to 1.09649.
Needless to say, the buyers and sellers are battling with a tilt to the sellers (below the 100 and 200 hour MA) but with the caveat that they still have much to prove.
So get below the 50% at 1.0971. Get below the 1.09604 and then get below the 1.09438 to 1.09487 and those would satisfy the steps to increase the bearish bias.
If those steps can't be made - or if buyers lean against the 50% and push above the 100 hour MA - then the bias shifts more in favor of the buyers once again with the 200 hour MA at 1.10184 as the next key upside target to get above.
The lines in the sand have been drawn. It is up to the sellers (or buyers), to cross over the ones that would increase the bias in the direction of the break.