Last week, the 200 hour MA in the EURUSD did a good job of stalling the rallies (see green line in the chart above).
Yesterday, the price of EURUSD initially moved higher and extended above that 200 hour moving average in the process. However, momentum could not be sustained, and the price rotated back to the downside as Russian/Ukraine news started to dominate and the EUR moved lower.
Today the low in the Asian session look to approach last week's low at 1.12791, but could only get to 1.1287 (eight pips short of the low) before consolidating near the 50% retracement at 1.13075, and ultimately breaking back to the upside.
Once again, the 200 hour moving average (green line) was ultimately broken to the upside in the London morning session (currently at 1.13571), but momentum could not be sustained. The last three hourly bars have been able to hold resistance against that moving average (the 100 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement is also in play near 1.13516).
The current price is currently at 1.1344 below both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages.
What next?
Although broken twice and failed twice, the 200 hour moving average remains an important barometer for the buyers and sellers. Another move above and the bias will shift back to the upside as long as the price can stay above that moving average level.
Absent that (and sellers are already leaning), and a rotation back down toward 1.13189 to 1.13295 followed by the 50% retracement 1.13075 would be the next downside targets (with stops above the 200 hour MA).
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the high for February (on Feb 10) moved above a ceiling at 1.1483 (the high reached 1.1494 but quickly reversed back below that ceiling). The price has been below the lower 100 day MA since February 11. The highs from last week, and again yesterday, stalled ahead of that MA level. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control.
On the downside, the 1.1273 level will be eyed. Get and stay below, increases the bearish bias.
