Oil appears to be breaking out after a period of consolidation.
OPEC+ agreed to raise its June production by 432K barrels per day at its meeting today. That's in-line with expectations and the plan they laid out last year to slowly increase supply. The meeting lasted just 15 minutes in a signal that no deviations are contemplated from that plan any time soon.
The focus at the moment is on a potential EU ban of Russian oil. Analysts say that could cut global supply by an additional 1 million barrels per day. Bulgaria and Hungary have objections to the plan but EU official cited by newswires continue to say they expect a deal by the end of the week.
Technically, there has been a classic consolidation after the blow off to $130 in early March. That could have resolved in either direction and with China locked down and global growth questions increasing, the downside looked ripe. Instead, oil bulls held the line, perhaps on inventory building in Europe.
Now it's a question of whether we close above the April 18 high of $109.79 (call it $110.00). The highs o far today was $111.37.but at last trade crude was at $110.51.
