Gold eventually erased the gains from the geopolitical events between Israel and Iran and found support around a key trendline. The price started to consolidate as the market awaits some new catalyst to push it in either direction. This week has been pretty empty on the data front and there was no Fedspeak as the FOMC is in the blackout period. We did get the latest US PMIs though and they missed expectations across the board with some worrying commentary around the labour market. Interestingly, it didn’t spark a rally in Gold, so the market might want to see some more data before trusting the PMIs.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Gold eventually pulled back into the key trendline where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 2150 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got stuck in some consolidation around the trendline with a strong resistance around the 2330 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The sellers are clearly stepping in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a continuation of the downward trend. The buyers will need to break above the resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the tight range between the 2310 support and the 2330 resistance. We can also see that we have a downward trendline adding confluence to the resistance zone. A breakout to the upside will be significant and will likely trigger a stronger bullish move. Conversely, a breakout to the downside should see the bearish momentum increasing and pushing the market into the next support around the 2150 level.
Upcoming Events
Today we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost.
