The AUDUSD closed on Friday just above its 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above near 0.67587). A close of a week above a MA by a few pips can be misleading. It could simply be end of week position squaring. The trading price action on Monday is more important.
Today, the price opened lower and back below the 200 hour MA. The price then moved back toward the 100 day MA at 0.67486 and the 100 hour MA (currently at 0.67449). The price dipped to 0.6741 and bounced.
The Asian session high did extend back above the falling 200 hour MA, but momentum stalled. The price moved back below the key MA and stayed below this time.
The subsequent fall through the European session has now seen the pair break below both the 100 day and 100 hour MAs (see both blue lines on the chart above). Those MAs come in at 0.67449 and 0.67486 respectively. They are now close risk levels. Stay below keeps the sellers in firm control. Move above, and the bias is back to the upside.
Those moving averages are key in the short-term bias for the pair
In the way this week, is the RBA rate decision which will take place in the new trading day tomorrow (10:30 PM ET).
The RBA is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%. The market will be focused on projections toward a terminal rate. Back on February 23, Westpac raise their estimate for the term rate to 4.10% from 3.85%.
The RBA shadow board recommends a 25 basis point hike.
The Shadow Board is a group of economic experts who meet each month
- comprised of a panel of nine members, including economists, academics, and industry
- Board members make their recommendations based on their analysis of key economic indicators, such as inflation, employment, and economic growth, as well as global economic trends
- the Shadow Board members provide provide their opinions on the appropriate level of the RBA's cash rate target, as well as the probability of a rate change in the near future
- published on the website of the Australian National University's Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
