The USDCAD has dipped to a new session low in the current hourly bar. In the process, the pair:
- Is moving back into the trading range that confined the range between 1.2935 and 1.3083. Earlier today, the price moved below the upper end of that range, and has been able to stay below that level and push lower
- Has moved below its 100 hour moving average 1.30365
- Is currently testing its 200 hour moving average 1.30189.
Will below the 200 hour moving average and stay below that level would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward the lower extremes within the up and down swing area (see red box in the chart above). Recall from earlier this week and last week, the price close stalled at 1.2935 on 3 separate occasions (see red numbered circles for, 5, and 6) ahead of that level watch near the 1.2965 level.
Conversely if the price is able to get back above the 100 hour moving average keep an eye on the 1.3051 – 1.30548 area as resistance.
Helping the move higher in the CAD is a rebound in crude oil prices. The futures are currently trading at $98.24 that's up $2.50 on the day.
Pres. Biden meets with Saudi officials today looking for increase production from the country. For the week, as has seen volatile trading. A week ago, the price closed at $104.78. The high price reached $105.02 on Monday, and a low of $90.58 on Thursday. The price near $98 is near the middle of that trading range (actually just above it).
The move to the upside in crude oil is helping to strengthen a Canadian dollar (lower USDCAD).
The Bank of Canada raise rates by a surprise 100 basis points this week, preemptively tightening policy. Despite the price high, the CAD weekend further yesterday helped by overall USD buying. However, that break higher has failed and given up some of those break gains today.
