The USDCAD fell sharply yesterday after higher than expected CPI data and overall US dollar selling (see post from yesterday here). The pair trended below the 200/100 hour MA early in the Asian session, then took out retracement levels of the move up from the April low including the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. The low stalled near swing levels going back to March 29 (see red numbered circles).
Today, the price extended below a swing area between 1.2463 and 1.24715 (see red numbered circles), but the break could not sustain downside momentum, and the price snapped back higher.
The subsequent high price has so far stalled against the Asian session highs, and below the 61.8% retracement at 1.25065. Stay below the 61.8% retracement and the sellers remain more in control. Move above and the swing low from April 14 at 1.2520 all by the swing area between 1.2533 and 1.2539 would be targeted (the 50% retracement is near the high of that swing area).
On the downside, a move below the 1.2463 to 1.24715 area would increase the bearish bias once again with the low from March 30 at 1.24286, and the low from April 5 at 1.2402 as the next major downside targets.
