USDCAD waffles up and down with buyers making a ST play

The USDCAD has been waffling in an up and down trading range today after the declines seen yesterday afternoon. That fall took the price down below its 100 hour moving average (blue line), and to test its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).

The 200 hour MA support held yesterday but in trading today, the price did moved below the 200 hour moving average on 2 separate occasions. However momentum could not be sustained and the price has since moved back above the higher 100 hour moving average 1.31403. That is about where the price is currently trading. Can the buyers keep the momentum going? Stay above the 100 hour moving average would give the buyers more confidence.

PS There is also a swing area down to 1.31317 (see red numbered circles). That could be a risk defining level for buyers leaning against the moving average.

What is the next major target on further upside momentum?

On the topside, yesterday the price highs tested the high price from last week at 1.32072. Sellers leaned on the 2 tests and that helped to contribute to the move back to the downside.

What happens if it all falls apart?

On the downside, a move back below the 1.31317 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.31175 would have traders looking toward a swing area between 1.3076 and 1.3092. The area has been defined going back to May, June and July (not shown in the chart above). The price moved above that ceiling toward the end of July and tried to stay above the level, but failed moving to the August low.

The price action saw the USDCAD move back above that swing area on August 31 and traders leaned against the area on September 2. On Tuesday, the price approached the topside of the swing area and again found early buyers showing the buyers want to stay in control.