The USDCHF trade to the highest level since May 2019 last week on Monday. The high price reached 1.00637. That high took out the previous highs from May 11 and 12 near 1.0048.
The break to new high could not sustain momentum, and the price closed lower on the day (a failed break).
The price fell on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday before rebounding on Friday. Today the price is lower once again making it the 5th decline in 6 trading days.
Looking at the hourly chart, the move to the downside got its 1st shove on Tuesday after breaking below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). Also on Tuesday and into Wednesday, the price traded above and below its 200 hour moving average (green line) before moving below that key MA line with more momentum (also on Wednesday). The price has not traded above the 100 or 200 hour moving averages since then.
On Thursday, the price fell below its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 12 low at 0.9766. The April 12 low was the last time the price has traded below its 200 hour moving average. The most recent trend move to the upside started on that day.
On Friday the corrective move to the upside stalled just ahead of that 38.2% retracement level keeping the sellers satisfied that further downside could still be in the cards.
Today, the Asian session opened modestly lower and kept the selling bias in play below the 38.2% retracement level. In the London morning session, the 50% midpoint of the same move higher has now been broken at 0.96748. That is now close resistance. Stay below keeps the bears firmly in control. The current price is trading at 0.9660.
Earlier today SNBs Maechler said that the central bank would not hesitate to increase rates if inflation remains outside of the target.. Last week Jordan had also implied that rates could rise as result of inflation. That has helped to straighten the CHF vs the USD.
