The USDCHF was the only currency vs the USD that closed lower vs the greenback during yesterday's trading. The other major currencies, all saw the USD move lower/currency higher. Price action in the USDCHF was up and down with most of the price action to the downside, but a late day rally took the price above the Friday close.
Today, in the Asian session, the USDCHF price moved up retest the broken 200 hour MA (green line). Sellers leaned against that level as risk was defined and limited (the 100 hour MA was also a level to lean against). Buyers turned to sellers and pushed the price back to the downside.
That move took the price below the 38.2% of the move up from the June 29 low at 0.97359, and the lows from yesterday which breached that retracement yesterday, but only by 4 pips before rebounding higher.
The break today was with much more momentum today, giving the sellers the go-ahead to push to the downside. Sellers piled in...
The price decline has seen the USDCHF move below the 50% retracement at 0.96898 with little stall, and as I type isbreaking below the next target at the lows from July 6 at 0.9669.
The next target comes in at the 61.8% of the move up from the June 29 low at 0.96437. That is also near a swing high from July 1.
The USDCHF range is up to 123 pips. The average over the last month of trading is 85 pips. So today's price action is showing strong support from the sellers. Technically, the breaks are confirming that as well. However, is the pair getting oversold?
Will buyers try to catch the falling knife?
The low has reached 0.96618. That is 18 pips from the 61.8%/swing high from July 1. Traders looking to take profit/buy a dip would lean against those levels with stops on more momentum on a break.
A move back above the 50% retracement is now needed to give dip buyers more confidence and may lead to more corrective action after the sharp decline seen so far today. Absent that though, and the sellers are still in firm control.
