The USDCHF fell below its 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) earlier today for the third day in a row.
The move below on Wednesday saw the low bottom near the swing low from early Monday near 0.9751. The subsequent bounce, saw the pair reach 0.9885 -taking out the swing high from Tuesday's trade at 0.98585. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price moved back below that level and stayed below that level, paving the way for the sellers to take a shot.
Today, getting back below the 100 hour MA gave the sellers a victory in the technical win/loss column. After the retail sales bump higher was quickly reversed over the last hour so, with the price has moving back down toward its 200 hour moving average at 0.97693 (see green line in the chart above).
The price has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since July 4. As a result, getting and staying below that level would be another victory from a technical perspective for the sellers.
If the level is broken, there is still the question of the lows from Monday and Wednesday which came near 0.9750. Get below that level would have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June 29 low. That level comes in at 0.97359.
Of course the 200 hour moving average may also be a dip buying level for the dollar bulls. Traders are so far holding support against that level, and hoping for a rotation back to the upside. The close price from Wednesday came in at 0.9787. Keep an eye on that level as a confidence booster for buyers. Move above that level and there is still the 0.9800 level, followed by the 100 hour moving average at 0.98164 as upside targets.
